Munger Mode rating: 2 out of 5 — Sell. Our own rating from the research report below, on business quality first: moat durability and management, with price separating the top three.
We have watched grain processors for seventy years, and the story never changes: enormous revenues, thin margins, returns on capital that hover around the cost of capital, and earnings that arrive and depart with crush spreads, crop cycles, and government fuel policy. ADM is one of the best-run of a mediocre breed — a genuine scale player with an irreplaceable physical network — but it is an average business, not a wonderful one. The recent quarter was excellent and guidance was raised sharply, yet a meaningful slice of that improvement is a government tax credit that expires in 2029, and the stock has already rallied more than 60% off its 2025 lows to a price above our estimate of intrinsic value.
Recent filings analysed: 8-K (2026-08-12), 8-K (2026-08-10), FWP (2026-08-05), 8-K (2026-08-04).
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