Munger Mode rating: 3 out of 5 — Hold. Our own rating from the research report below, on business quality first: moat durability and management, with price separating the top three.
Which kind of 3 this is: an average-to-good business at a meaningful but not enormous discount. We estimate intrinsic value near $140 per ADS against a $109 price, a discount of roughly 20-25%. The discount, plus the possibility that Alibaba Cloud becomes something better than the rest of the company, is what would produce the return. The e-commerce franchise itself no longer compounds the way it did, and the return will not come from a wide moat because the moat has narrowed. We would hold what we owned. We would not build a portfolio around it. Alibaba is three businesses wearing one coat, plus a closet of odds and ends. The first business is a toll bridge on Chinese retail. Taobao and Tmall are marketplaces. Alibaba does not own the inventory.
Recent filings analysed: Q1 Results (2026-08-20), 20-F (2026-05-20), Annual Results (2026-05-13), 6-K (2026-05-13).
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