Munger Mode rating: 2 out of 5 — Sell. Our own rating from the research report below, on business quality first: moat durability and management, with price separating the top three.
CF Industries is the world's largest producer of anhydrous ammonia — the keystone molecule of nitrogen fertilizer and, increasingly, a candidate fuel and hydrogen carrier in a low-carbon economy. The first-quarter 2026 results, filed on Form 10-Q for the period ended March 31, 2026, show the cyclical lever working in CF's favor again: net sales of $1,986 million versus $1,663 million a year earlier, net earnings attributable to common stockholders of $615 million versus $312 million, and diluted EPS of $3.98 versus $1.85. A significant share of the year-over-year improvement is non-recurring (a $170 million litigation settlement with Orica and $25 million of insurance recoveries from the Yazoo City incident), but underlying ammonia and urea pricing is firmly higher than the post-2022 trough.
Recent filings analysed: 10-Q (2026-08-06), 8-K (2026-08-05), 8-K (2026-08-05), 10-Q (2026-05-07).
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